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Financial Apocalypse

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The global financial crisis of 2008 was the worst crisis since the 1930’s. Wall Street honchos and Washington “leaders” tell the public that no one could have predicted it. That apparently is the excuse for not having taken steps to prevent it. But it’s a lie.

 

 

THE TRUTH BEHIND THE GLOBAL CREDIT CRISIS; REVEALED!

THIS BOOK MAY SAVE YOU A FORTUNE!         

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There was one analyst, Bert Dohmen, who warned at the beginning of 2008, that starting in September, 08 the global financial markets would teeter on the brink. On 2007, he wrote a book, entitled: PRELUDE TO MELTDOWN, which predicted the current crisis. At the time, Washington regulators were oblivious to the problems which Bert Dohmen predicted would engulf the global financial system. 

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                  A “SOFT LANDING” IN CHINA? No way!

By Bert Dohmen, President

Dohmen Capital Research Group

(CNBC GUEST BLOG) 5-9-2012

The current China debate centers around a soft or a hard landing. The overwhelming majority opinion is that a communist government can accomplish what no other country has ever done, namely engineer a soft landing from the bursting of an immense, speculative, credit bubble.

I have a different view. Yes, a “command economy” can present the illusion that all is well, but they cannot change reality of trillions of dollars of loans going bad, of export markets like Europe going into recession, of an avalanche of companies going out of business, of workers ending up in the streets. Hungry people riot.

Therefore, I suggest that it’s better to ignore all official economic numbers from governmental agencies in China. In fact, in the US that might be a good idea as well.

The much vaunted GDP growth of 8.1% in China, the lowest GDP growth in years, sounds great but it is fiction. GDP is “inflation-adjusted.” If the governmental uses a fictitious inflation number, in this case much too low, then the GDP is just as fictitious. Some astute observers on the ground in China confirm what I have said since last year, namely that China’s economic growth is now near zero.

Contradicting my statement is the “official” PMI, from the government, which shows a positive number, i.e. above 50. But that number focuses on SOE’s, the large governmentally owned companies. These of course have an infinite amount of financial assistance available to them. The positive PMI produced headlines like this one:  Wall Street analysts responded:  “the hard-landing view is now off of the table.”

All I can say is, “really?”....More.

THE OUTLOOK FOR GOLD

By Bert Dohmen 4-26-2012

Some new subscribers might question the veracity of our view that the gold price is highly manipulated. Well, in 1998, Fed chairman Alan Greenspan said in Congressional testimony: “Central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise.”

There it is, straight from the horse’s mouth. Gold leasing refers to the practice of central banks lending their gold to the bullion banks. This gold must be returned several years later. The bullion banks pay around 0.5% interest to the central bank. They then sell the gold for cash, and use the cash to buy U.S. Treasuries at perhaps 3-4% yield. It’s a nice way to make quick money, unless the gold price rises.

But it’s also a way to put downward pressure on the gold price, which is what central banks want. Obviously, the bullion banks would sell the gold futures short just before they sell the physical gold in the market place. That’s an additional profit center.

In this connection, the Dodd-Frank bill has a provision that we like: It puts position limits on the various commodities, i.e., the maximum number of contracts any entity can hold. The derivatives industry and the large financial firms are fighting this in court. It will be decided soon. Obviously, that would reduce another big source of manipulated profits for these outfits, including from the gold leasing.  More.

“THE WORST ECONOMY IN HISTORY”

By Bert Dohmen 4-25-201

The employment report of April 6 was a terrible disappointment for the bulls. Job creation of 120,000 was about half of what had been expected. However, miraculously the unemployment rate declined to 8.2%. How is that possible?

Well, more people continued to “leave the labor force.” Why? Because they can’t find jobs, have been unemployed for more than one year and therefore disappear into vapor, at least as far as the Labor Department is concerned.

Imagine a theoretical: If we get back into a serious depression, and no one can find a job, theoretically we could have the official unemployment rate drop to 4% or even lower because everyone “has left the labor force.” Yes, statistics lie.

So, it’s probably best to ignore this politically engineered number. Just look at the number of people not working. It is at the highest rate in history. When does a person drop out of the labor force? According to Wikipedia: A discouraged worker is defined as a person not in the labor force who wants and is available for a job and who has looked for work sometime in the past 12 months (or since the end of his or her last job if a job was held within the past 12 months), but who is not currently looking because of real or perceived poor employment prospects. More.

Bert Dohmen's Market Calls late 2011

 

Bert Dohmen's Market Calls 2010/2011

Bert Dohmen's Market Calls 2007/2010

 

 

 

UNSURPASSED PERFORMANCE!

 

Bert Dohmen Market Calls: 2008-2009

 

Bert Dohmen Market Calls: 2007-2008

 

These signals are incredible, especially considering that the DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE plunged 35% during the same time. Here you can clearly see the superiority of our services.

 

How can you make money in Bull and Bear markets?

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Dohmen Capital Research group was founded in 1977 by Bert Dohmen as an economic and investment research firm. Our mission has been to provide serious investors and traders with the most profitable investment and economic advice, available anywhere, via subscription services. The advice will always be unbiased and will not have any conflicts of interest. We don’t hesitate to give sell advice, or to sell short, when our work calls for it.

The analysis is designed to help you make the right choices and decisions on how to invest your money and prosper over both the short and long-term. Serious investors will find a wealth of profit-making investment and economic guidance. Bert Dohmen's long time experience in the markets will be working for you.

The firm’s services have achieved the highest acclaim. Dohmen Capital Research offers the most highly respected and sought-after advisory services for investors worldwide. The first publication was THE WELLINGTON LETTER, which has achieved numerous awards of distinction. It quickly made its mark on Wall Street with often totally contrarian forecasts, such as the 20% prime rate in 1980, the roaring bull market in gold and silver, followed by the 20 year bear market, and a decline in U.S. T-bonds of over 40% in the late 1970’s among others.

Learn more about Bert Dohmen and Dohmen Capital Research

MORE ARTICLES OF INTEREST

MAJOR INDICES RISE… DEFYING THE RULES

By Bert Dohmen 3-14-2012

The stock market is seemingly defying the laws of gravity and rules of traditional technical analysis. Volume has been declining for the past two months or more while the major indices have been rising. On March 12, the markets had the lowest trading volume of the year. Apparently, the major indices are rising on fumes.

The rules of analysis say that rising prices accompanied by declining volume creates a vacuum of demand underneath prices, which eventually produces a correction, often a sharp one. The widely-watched indices, such as the Dow Jones Industrials, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ COMP continue to rise. However, other indices are clearly lagging, such as the small cap Russell 2000, or the Dow Jones Transports.

Our indicators, such as the chart below, show that the stock market has been under “distribution” since early February. “Distribution” means that stocks are being sold by the big, smart money to the less astute money managers under the guise of rising indices. Over many decades, that has always preceded a market correction.

The major indices are easy to manipulate. For example, the NASDAQ 100 index has 10 stocks that are 54% of the capitalization. Apple is 16% of the index. So, they only have to move 10 stocks to control the index. Therefore, in order to get a truer picture of market strength, we measure what the majority of stocks are do     More.

CHINA

By Bert Dohmen 2-7-2012

In our Special Report, THE COMING CHINA CRISIS (102 pages), available here on our website,we predicted that many cities would have a revenue crises as land sales dry up. You see, many cities in China have financed as much as 50% of their budgets through sales of land to developers. Now such land sales have to come to a standstill.

In Jinan not a single developer bid for nine of the 11 plots offered by the city in early November. In Guangzhou, 32 plots failed to sell in November. Auctions were suspended by the city government in other auctions. Guahzhou had expected 18.7 billion yuan (around $3 billion) in sales revenues from these attempted sales.

The cities need the money to pay the police, fire departments, health care people, school teachers, etc. The government doesn’t want even more reasons for people to riot. In our view, this problem is still in the early phases. Eventually, the central government will have to jump in and finance the shortfalls.

A business tax is expected to be eliminated next year in certain sectors. But the “value-added tax” will be hiked and there will be more property taxes which currently is not a common tax. As the economic growth comes to a screeching halt in China, these taxes will be destructive, especially for real estate. In fact, it will cause protests, something a dictatorship doesn’t like. To us it means that Chinese politicians make the same mistakes as those in the west. More   

BEWARE OF “WALL STREET WISDOM”

By Bert Dohmen- January 24, 2012

The U.S. is currently running unsustainable deficits, which are just a few years away from producing a crisis. However, they are still being considered more of a nuisance by politicians, like mosquitoes, rather than something that could cause an economic collapse. When the politicians finally awaken to the ominous facts, it will be too late. Currently, they consider global warming a greater threat.

For 2012, economists are very cheerful in the U.S. Forecasts of 2.5-3.5% GDP growth are heard. Therefore, they conclude that the stock market should do well. Beware!

The published GDP growth numbers are inflation-adjusted. The inflation number used is much too low. If actual inflation were deducted from nominal GDP growth, we would have a negative GDP growth number. Do these economists ever go grocery shopping to see what real consumer inflation is?

Anyone who listens to economists and acts on those forecasts risks extreme pain. There is not one crisis that the economic establishment has ever foreseen. Do you know any economist who in 2007 or even 2008 predicted the greatest global financial crisis since the 1930’s? We did!  But the economists at the Federal Reserve, including its chairman, continued to insist even in early 2008 that there would be no housing crisis and no “contagion” of the mortgage mess to the rest of the credit markets. Yes, those were the famous words of Ben Bernanke, who is considered the foremost expert on the causes of the Great Depression. Of course, economists didn’t predict that Depression either. More.

EUROPE: THE MERKEL-SARKOZY AGENDA and YEAR-END PROGNOSIS

By Bert Dohmen- December 5, 2011

The meeting between the leaders of Germany and France last weekend apparently ended in agreement. The two leaders will try to convince heads of the EU member nations at the Dec. 8-9 European Union summit to agree to some kind of compulsory fiscal and economic cooperation.

The problem is that currently there is no mechanism for member nations to have fiscal discipline. If these countries had their own currencies instead of the Euro, the markets would take care of the “discipline” by selling those currencies. However, because they use the Euro, they can just relax and engage in unsustainable deficit spending to support their welfare states.

Last week the finance ministers of the Euro-zone agreed to a proposal to recycle central bank loans through the IMF. That would supply  as much as 200 billion euros ($270 billion) to fight the crisis. Germany wants to get the IMF involved in the crisis which the IMF so far has declined to do. The US is 27% of the IMF. That means the US taxpayers are not only on the hook for unsustainable US debt, but now also for the European mess. More..       

A European Crisis Followed by a China Crisis

by Bert Dohmen, Nov.26,2011. Editor of the Wellington Letter

The stock market was following a bullish script until five days ago. The S&P 500 and other major indices had formed a bullish “pennant,” which usually leads to an upside breakout. But this time it didn’t. On Nov. 17, the pennant was broken to the downside, a very unusual behavior. The reason: Europe’s crisis.

As analysts, we become even more alert than normal because when an important pattern breaks to the opposite direction, it’s usually meaningful. Remember the false downside breakouts in the indices on Oct. 4? That day we said a false breakout usually leads to a sharp move in the opposite direction. It happened!  But there is never certainty and therefore you must wait for the market to confirm that.

We had been looking for a good year-end rally. The question now, will the Euro-crisis kill that rally or is the recent decline just a short term fake-out?

The situation in Europe is going from bad to worst. On Wednesday, November 23, 2011, an auction of government bonds in Germany basically failed. About 35% of the 10-year bonds offered by the government were not bid for as yields soared. The German central bank had to buy the rest. This was a shock to the financial markets.

This has very serious implications for Europe and for the world. Germany is one of the strongest countries in the world and certainly the most financially responsible in Europe. If there is a shortage of buyers for those bonds, what will happen when the other European countries come to market? They have huge financing requirements over the next several years. More.. 

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Bert Dohmen says: “PREPARE FOR THE NEXT CRISIS"        

by Bert Dohmen, Sept. 8,-2011,Editor of the Wellington Letter

The president gave another talk accompanied by the top union leader who earlier this year said on national TV that the president better support the unions because they are the ones that put him in the White House. The president announced that the Transportation bill should be extended so that 4,000 people won’t lose their jobs. He urges the passage of a temporary extension.

In the meantime, the consulting firm of Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. says that the announced job cuts of large US companies are now 47% above those in August 2010. Yes, they amount to a hefty 51,114.

It’s evident that the next big stimulus will be massive infrastructure spending to keep the labor unions from going bankrupt. Keeping 4000 jobs when the economy needs 250,000 new jobs per month is not even a drop in the bucket; it’s a drop in the ocean. It has nothing to do with economic stimulation.

Economists are slowly realizing that the economy is in a recession, but they can’t make a sudden change in their forecasts. It’s all about “saving face,” not about making an accurate forecast. I have no axe to grind, no conflict of interest. Wall Street economists have already reduced their GDP growth forecasts by 70%. But they have not reduced profit forecasts. Amazing! More..

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“BEWARE OF THE AUTUMN”

by Bert Dohmen, Sept. 6,-2011

That was the headline of the August 28 issue of the acclaimed Bert Dohmen’s WELLINGTON LETTER. The economic numbers released since that time confirm that advice.

On Sept. 2, we got the employment number:  Zero jobs were added! It was the first time since 1925 according to one commentator. Expectations were for 80,000-100,000. Bert Dohmen advised his clients the prior day:  “…if our feeling of a bad surprise comes true, and only 20,000 new jobs, or even fewer, were generated, it would shock the markets.”

Bert Dohmen, author of the prescient book written in 2007, PRELUDE TO MELTDOWN, and FINANCIAL APOCALYPSE (2011) which he says is the road map for the next 1-2 years, has been writing since May that the economy is in recession. In fact, according to many numbers, we never even got out of the 2008-2009 recession.

As we go into autumn, Dohmen’s work shows that the 2008 crisis in the US will now be experienced by Europe, and then by all the emerging markets. Europe will be the trigger again in September. The politicians and policy makers in Europe aren’t any more pro-active than those in the US.

 

MORE PERFECT MARKET CALLS!        

by Bert Dohmen, Sept. 2,-2011,Editor of the Wellington Letter

Wall Street analysts say:  “No one can time the market.” However, one analyst, Bert Dohmen, editor of the acclaimed WELLINGTON LETTER, does it on a regular basis. On August 17, the exact day of the high of the bounce from the August 8 low, Dohmen advised in his SMARTE TRADER service to sell short again. The DOW plunged 419 points the next day.

Five days later, on August 22, he issued an advisory to clients:

1    STOCKS: “Close out all short positions…”

“Our indicators show that the major indices are just about back at the plunge lows of early August, but that selling pressure is substantially lower.

This market is set up for a rally. With sentiment so negative now, it’s obvious that the short side is “over-crowded.” And we never want to be on the over-crowded side of a trade.”

2.       GOLD:  “Gold hit $1900. This is a good time to take profits. Sell!”

What happened the next day?

1.       The DOW gained 313 at the high.

2.      GOLD plunged over $61 at the low, and the following day plunged almost $100.More..                

PHASE II OF THE GLOBAL CRISES 

by Bert Dohmen, August 8,-2011,Editor of the Wellington Letter

We have warned our clients since early May that a new global crisis was dead ahead. Here are the front page headlines of our WELLINGTON LETTER over the past three months:

The May 9 issue headline:  RETURN OF THE DOUBLE-DIP

The May 30 issue headline:  IMPORTANT TOPS!

The July 19 issue headline:   FINANCIAL CRISIS—PHASE II is

 BREWING

The July 30 issue headline:  THE NEXT “PERFECT FINANCIAL STORM”

If you are not a client, ask yourself if the above could have saved you a fortune. Our clients were short. Is this a “soft-patch, a buying opportunity, and all that non-sense?

Here is an EXCERPT from our August 6 SPECIAL BULLETIN:

On Friday, the market soared at the opening, with the DJI rising over 170 points within the first 15 minutes. The alleged reason: the Employment report was allegedly “better” than had been expected. That was ridiculous. The real reason: intervention by the Fed’s PPT to slap “lipstick on the pig.” More..           

“SLASHING” ECONOMIC FORECASTS

by Bert Dohmen, July 20,-2011,Editor of the Wellington Letter

The majority of analysts now say that the stock market just has a “soft patch,” which is temporary and provides another great opportunity for buying stocks. The “soft patch theory” was also used by these people in 2008 just before the meltdown, and we saw the “soft patch” theory used again the past five months to explain the renewed economic weakness.

But the stock market has been under “distribution” since mid-February. Distribution is when the big, smart money sells to the unsophisticated, myopic participants in the markets. The evidence is that every decline in the market since that time has occurred on rising volume, while the market rallies have occurred on declining volume. The financial sector has been declining since its peak in mid-February. You can’t have a bull market without the financial stocks participating.

The Washington debt ceiling scare is like a Kabuki theatre. All the participants on both sides get a lot of free TV time. That brings more financial contributions. A debt default is impossible. There is more than enough money coming into the government every day to pay interest on the debt, social security, benefits for veterans, etc. Furthermore, Congress has many alternatives to get out of this.

So don’t fall for the story that the stock market is weak because of the debt ceiling. There are much more serious problems, like European sovereign debt, China’s imploding credit bubble, etc. Of course, once they announce some type of agreement in Washington, the market will have that one last pop to the upside. But that may not last more than a day or so. It may be your last opportunity to find the exit.SUBSCRIBE

THE MARKETS AND THE ENDING QUANTITATIVE EASING (QE2) IN JUNE

 by Bert Dohmen, June 25,-2011

The $600 billion dollar QE2 program of the Federal Reserve is ending in June. What will the consequences be for the markets? Let’s look at history.

Last year when the first QE program stopped, it was followed by the stock market plunge in May and June, along with commodity prices (except for the precious metals).  T-bonds soared as a flight to safety.

 The flash crash of May 6 last year was the beginning. Will we have another flash crash? Not likely. However, when the Fed takes the foot off of the accelerator, liquidity is withdrawn. And that’s bearish.

Look at what happened in early 1937 when the economy was recovering and the stock market had had a big upmove for several years. The Fed felt they could stop stimulating. When they did, the DJI plunged 50%.

Yes, when you are on drugs, it hurts to stop, so the experts say. That also applies to stocks.

A member of the FOMC, Richard Fisher, chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said this about current Fed policy. He is making sure he will not get the blame for the bad consequences of QE2 and potential QE3. He said in a speech:

“I do not, however, feel that further monetary accommodation will speed the process. It might well retard job creation, should it give rise to inflationary expectations, or worse, imply that, having, suffered the slings and arrows of popular and political contempt as we went about doing what we did to save the financial system, we have now been compromised and become a pliant accomplice to Congress’ and the executive branch’s fiscal malfeasance. I am wary of those risks. More...

PREDICTING THE FUTURE                      

by Bert Dohmen, June 22,-2011

Years ago, a wise person said, “predicting is very difficult, especially when it comes to the future.” Well, in our business, people expect us to predict. Let’s see what we predicted about six weeks ago, now that we have the benefit of hindsight. This is what we wrote in the WELLINGTON LETTER of May 9.

WHAT’S AHEAD:

We now see important trend reversals in all the markets:

1.  STOCK MARKET:  This got to be a very “crowded trade,” with hardly a bear to be found. We wrote that last time. We now have sell signals on the most popular sectors of the market. The pundits tell you that the “unemployment claims” on May 5 shocked the market and caused the decline. No way. This is big money selling ahead of the ending of QE2. The end of $7-8 billon daily injection of money into the financial system will cause a painful hangover.

WELLINGTON LETTER subscribers know that this “distribution” (the smart money sells to the naïve money) has been going on for about two months. The new highs in the major indices seen during that time were manipulated, as seen by the low volume on rallies and the higher volume on the days of declines.

2. THE U.S. DOLLAR:  Bearish sentiment on the dollar has gone to an extreme rarely seen. Everything but the funeral has occurred. Shorting the dollar seemed to be the low risk trade for every analyst appearing in the media. It became a very “overcrowded” trade. Now that will reverse.

Just a few days ago general expectations were that Europe (ECB) would raise interest rates. Now the head of the ECB denied that. He has obviously seen the specter of a potential “double-dip” recession. Together with the increasing sovereign debt problems in Greece, Portugal, and Spain, the Euro is once again a high risk currency. The first step is always to “reschedule” the debt, which means postponing the maturity. Thereafter, when more money is required, the only solution is to “restructure” the debt, which is basically a benign default. That means that the creditors will have to write off hundreds of billions owed them.

Portugal just got a $115 billion loan, which is huge for such a small country. They think it will tide them over for a few months. So Portugal will be next, then Spain. Bigger than the direct debt problem to those countries is the problem of debt “restructuring,” i.e. write-downs of tens of billions of dollars by the large European banks. The banks will have to replenish their capital. As a result, the Euro should now be shunned.

If we are right, once the dollar rally gets going, there will be billions of shorts in the dollar to be covered. More...

SIGNS OF A MARKET TOP

by Bert Dohmen, May-16-2011

Our work strongly suggests that the disguised “distribution” of stocks since mid-February is now becoming more visible. This is so reminiscent of the top in 2007 when the big, smart money was exiting while the public was being lured into the markets with false stories of eternal prosperity.

Last week we saw sharp “momentum” declines in some of the hottest market areas. The biggest loser was silver which plunged about 31%. Gold was down 7%, oil is down about 17%. Basic materials and agricultural commodities also plunged, along with many of the popular stocks. The only question, is just another “warning shot”, or the real thing?

Our last issue (April 18) we headlined:  “WARNING FLAGS ARE FLYING”

We continued in that issue: 

The latest money manager survey shows that there is a huge change on their outlook for the emerging markets. In December, 71% were bullish; now on 51% are bullish on the emerging markets. The survey was made in the first two weeks of March. That was before the Japan catastrophe.

However, domestically there is a virtual capitulation of the bears. They have given up on the market ever going down again. Ever! That’s typical of market tops. Investors Intelligence, which monitors the sentiment of investment advisors, shows in their latest survey that the percent of bulls has increased to 57.3% from 51%. That’s a huge jump and now is at levels seen at important market tops. And the bears have plunged to 15.7% compared to 23.1%.  That gives you a difference of 41.6 between bulls and bears, which is well above 40, which is considered the “danger” zone.

It’s reminiscent of January 1977 when we started the WELLINGTON LETTER. At the time, Investors Intelligence showed only 3.8% bears, a record low. My indicators showed that an important top had formed. I wanted to put my prediction of a bear market in writing and started this publication. Because there were virtually no bears to be found, the Wall Street Journal couldn’t be choosy and put an item about my forecast in the “Heard on the Street” column. Thank you, Gene Marcial. And that’s what launched my business as the DJI started a 15 month bear market. It was painful for the bulls.  More...

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