How A Contrarian Has Called every important Market Decline
in over 39 Years. With His Advice, You Too Can
Prosper In Bull And Bear Markets!
THE BERT DOHMEN STORY
When Bert Dohmen first began releasing his forecasts and recommendations to the public in 1977, his views were greeted with skepticism by the Wall Street establishment. Why? In the first issue of Bert Dohmen’s Wellington Letter, in early 1977, he predicted a bear market. Wall Street considered it impossible. Only 3.8% of investment advisors were bearish (Investor’s Intelligence, Larchmont N.Y.), an all-time low of bears for this survey. Yet a 15 month bear market started.
Bert Dohmen’s bear market forecast soon got noticed by the financial media. In fact, the Wall Street Journal’s most widely read column, HEARD ON THE STREET, gave extensive space to Bert Dohmen’s bear market prediction. They had a hard time finding other bears. After the 15 month bear market ensued, Bert Dohmen became a sought-after analyst for successful investors world-wide.
Since that time, he has been advising thousands of investors and business leaders. And he’s regularly sought out by the media for his astute insights. Why? Because of his uncannily accurate forecasts.
For diligent investors who want to know all the facts, the following charts and excerpts from actual issue give you a sampling of his analysis and market calls over the years. You expect the same when you become a subscriber.
REVEALED: HOW WALL STREET CREATES A MARKET TOP!
Lessons from the 2007 top that can save you a fortune…right now!
Market tops don’t occur spontaneously. They are engineered to trap the bulls who believe that bull markets last forever. Someone has to hold all the stocks as the market goes into a bear market. It’s a cinch that the Wall Street firms don’t want to be the bagholders. Read this story about how Bert Dohmen warned his clients during 2007-2008.
BEAR MARKET PROFITS!
Bear markets offer greater opportunities than bull markets. We just sell short, buy put options, buy the inverse ETFs, and even trade some of the bear market rallies.
Wall Street tells you “Buy and Hold,” while they sell their own portfolios. They need you to buy, so that they have someone to sell to.
Well, Bert Dohmen calls it the way he sees it. He has no conflict of interest. His only goal: to make his clients money so that they stay with him for a long time.
UNSURPASSED IN ACCURACY
Bert Dohmen’s MARKET CALLS: 2014 to January 2016
Bert Dohmen’s MARKET CALLS 2013-2014
Bert Dohmen’s MARKET CALLS 2011-2012
Bert Dohmen’s Market Calls late 2011
Bert Dohmen’s Market Calls late 2010/2011
Bert Dohmen’s Market Calls late 2007/2010
Bert Dohmen’s Market Calls late 2008/2009
Bert Dohmen’s Market Calls late 2007/2008
These signals are incredible, especially considering that the DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE plunged over 54% (7730 points) during that bear market. Here you can clearly see why ‘market timing’ is so important. Avoiding the big market declines is much more important than spending lots of time trying to find the big winning stock. Chances are you won’t. But going down fully invested in a 54% market decline can destroy your retirement nest egg.
BERT DOHMEN’S CALLS DURING THE GLOBAL CRISIS OF 2007
People usually ask an analyst, “What have you done? Show me a track record.” And then the advisor may pull out some fictitious numbers showing huge gains. Well, we don’t play that game. We want to show you actual advice from Bert Dohmen:
Below are major forecasts of Bert Dohmen before and during the turmoil of 2007-2008. The actual issue is noted, the headline is there, and the text is directly from the issue.
Wellington Letter • April 3, 2007
“THE MAKINGS OF A PERFECT FINANCIAL STORM”
Wellington Letter • July 24, 2007
“THE FINANCIAL STORM IS STARTING”
(NOTE: It was the exact top, followed by a very severe market decline into mid-August. That was followed by a low volume rally.)
Wellington Letter • October 15, 2007
“TOP OF THE RALLY!”
(Note: As we know now, the 5-year bull market top was made on Oct. 11, 2007, two trading days before the date of this issue.)
Wellington Letter • October 30, 2007
“DON’T GET TRAPPED!”
“The Fed will cut rates, but the market will decline, probably sharply, thereafter.”
Wellington Letter • November 12, 2007
“BEWARE OF BOTTOM-FISHING!”
December 5, 2007 Wellington Letter was headlined:
“THEY DO RING A BELL ON WALL STREET–ALTHOUGH A LITTLE LATE!”
The reality is that we are seeing the greatest credit contraction in the history of the U.S., one which is still in the early stages. Credit contractions are brutal. There is usually no place to hide, except ultimately T-bills.
Wellington Letter • December 14, 2007
“THE FED DOESN’T GET IT!”
It is now obvious to me that we face a very long and possibly deep recession. Furthermore, we will see a bear market that few think is possible. A 50% decline in the DJI (from this year’s high) is a good possibility. But it will take time.
There will be bank failures, forced mergers, and governmental bailouts. Our largest financial institutions will see significant portions of their stock owned by foreign entities before it’s over. The U.S. is now continuing the path of its long-term decline into irrelevance, which started in the year 2000.
(Note: The DJI declined 54.6% during that bear market, very close to the above projection.)
Wellington Letter • December 27, 2007
“THE RECESSION HAS STARTED!”
SUMMARY: When credit availability contracts significantly, a recession or worse is inevitable. And now we are seeing the greatest credit crunch since 1930, not only in the U.S., but worldwide. The implications are very serious.
NOW FOR THE GOOD NEWS:
The above clearly shows that Bert correctly identified the major trends of 2007-2008, but also the exact tops, plunges, and rallies. This is only possible using sophisticated technical analysis, something which 95% of the traditional analysts have never studied, and therefore dismiss as “voodoo.”
With Bert’s help you can make great profits during these times. He will help you avoid the traps which Wall Street sets for investors, and show you how you can make great profits whether stocks rise or plunge.
THE MORE DISTANT PAST
Over the years, it would be hard to find someone with a better forecasting record, especially at times when it required a totally contrarian view.
In early 1990 Bert predicted a market crash in Japan and a 10 year-long, deep recession. He headlined a story, “The End of Gold-Wrapped Sushi”. It was a totally contrarian forecast. Yes, at the peak of the Japan boom in 1989, the newly rich were actually eating sushi wrapped in gold foil. Such extravagances usually market the top of any boom.
The Nikkei index in Tokyo had just gone over 39,000. In the U.S. politicians expressed their concern about the Japanese buying all the best U.S. real estate and that the Japanese banks were taking over the international banking system. Legislation was being considered in Hawaii, California, and even in Washington to prevent such foreign investments.
Well, as it turned out, Bert Dohmen’s forecast of a ’10-year recession’ was conservative. The recession or stagnation in Japan lasted longer than 20 years. The stock market plunged more than 70%. And it took the economy about 15 years to get out of the severe real estate depression.
It wasn’t until early 2013 that a record stimulus and money creation program of the new Japanese government was initiated to get Japan out of the ditch. The eventual ‘collateral damage’ of such reckless money creation will be seen over the next several years. Some big tax increases are planned in Japan for 2014-2015. In our opinion, those will burst the bubble.
In 1997, investment analysts around the world were wildly optimistic about Hong Kong’s boom continuing even after handing the colony over to China. Bert Dohmen was at an excellent conference in Hong Kong at that time. Optimism abounded. But after seeing the multitude of new real estate project in construction, Bert predicted a real estate crash in Hong Kong.
He also predicted that the Hong Kong stock market would crash. The Hong Kong Index stood near 16,000. Bert predicted a plunge to 7,000, a decline of more than 50%!
What happened? The stock market crashed below 7,000 by the summer 1998. Hong Kong plunged into a recession, the worst in over 40 years! (See Chart of Hong Kong Hang Seng.) Real estate prices declined as much as 50%. For investors who were smart and sold at the top, the crash presented a great buying opportunity.
Another example: In 1997, there was a world-wide market plunge. But one asset class excelled: U.S. T-Bonds! Bert had recommended a special breed of bond funds: Zero?Coupon T-Bond funds.
In August of 1997, Bert appeared on CNBC and said that these would be the best investment over the next 1-2 years. Some viewers laughed in disbelief. How could T-Bonds possibly outperform the stock market? Yet from July 1997 to the peak of October 1998, one of these funds appreciated over 70%; and another gained over 61%!
Actually, Dohmen had first called the zero-coupon T-bond funds an “opportunity of a lifetime” in 1982, when T-bond yields stood at a record 15.75%. He was right: over the next 15 years they appreciated more than 1000%.
Who would have thought T-Bond investments could do so well? Could this advice have helped you?
Just luck? Here is more: On national television on August 21, 1998, Bert Dohmen predicted a market plunge, with the Dow plunging 1,000 points to 7,500. It seemed improbable. Yet, only one week later, the Dow hit that exact target. (See Dow Jones Chart, 10/30/98.)
Bert Dohmen’s timely “sell” signals helped subscribers avoid these declines, and even profited from them.
And on October 15th, 1998, at the start of the next powerful upmove, Bert Dohmen issued new “buy” recommendations for all PRIVATE PORTFOLIOS. Having sold at the top, our subscribers now had plenty of liquidity for picking up the bargains. Bert Dohmen stated that a new phase of the bull market had started.
THE MOST DESTRUCTIVE BEAR MARKET:
COULD THIS HAVE HELPED YOU?
For investors who want to see “active investing” at work, please read the following. You will see that market timing is possible and that it can save your portfolio from financial disaster.
In March 2000, at the top of the huge NASDAQ bubble, Bert wrote: “When the Fed has this attitude, it usually ends in a Crash.” And a two year bear market of monumental proportions followed.
After a summer rally, in September-October 2000 the NASDAQ turned down again. On October 9, 2000 Bert compared the market with that of the devastating bear market of 1973-74. He wrote: “I think when it’s all over, people will realize that once again the Fed overdid it and may have caused a financial crisis. The NASDAQ 100 Index …could plunge 50% and still be overvalued.”
At the same time, Wall Street and corporate America were still very optimistic: the CEO of Hewlett-Packard was quoted in Business Week: “The only surprises will be upside, not downside.” By early 2001, the surprises were all negative.
When the NASDAQ COMP was still over 3000, down from the high of 5132 Bert forecasted: “Eventually in 2001, the NASDAQ Composite could go…to the 1,400 area.” That target was reached, although it seemed improbably at the time.
Bert has been called a Leading Fed Watcher by the Wall Street Journal. He sometimes seems to know what the Fed will be motivated to do before the Fed members do. In the middle of December 2000, he predicted that the Fed would cut interest rates before their regularly scheduled meeting in late January. They did so on January 3.
Then Bert forecasted a good stock market rally based on the move but warned: “After a rally, the selling could spread to the old economy-type stocks, including General Electric. …by February we’ll probably see an abrupt change in sentiment. People will sell stocks, at any price, and decide that the stock market is not for them.”
February 2, 2001: Our WELLINGTON LETTER was headlined: “THE END OF THE TECH RALLY.” Over the next two months, the NASDAQ Composite plunged 1,000 points!
On February 2, 2001, Bert wrote: “…the majority of economists are predicting a strong recovery in the second half of this year. They never expected this economic downturn, so now they’re supposed to be the experts in predicting the upturn?”
For our PRIVATE PORTFOLIO service, on February 2, 2001 we sold mutual funds that had done very well for us during the January 2001 rally, and bought bear funds. These soared over the next two months. One bear fund gained a phenomenal 172% in two months as the NASDAQ plunged.
During March 2001, the Dow Jones Industrials Index lost 1753 points in just two weeks. It surprised all those who thought that this was a “safe haven” area. But it confirmed our forecast.
It was a painful bear market for the majority of investors. Over $8 trillion of investor wealth was wiped out. Yet, PRIVATE PORTFOLIO subscribers were safeguarded.
Why are Bert Dohmen’s predictions so accurate? With over three decades of experience trading the world’s markets, and his own special combination of technical and fundamental analysis, Bert Dohmen has emerged as one of the top market timers in the world. He has caught the major market tops and bottoms, often within a day or two. Now can have this experience and expertise work for you.
The Bursting of the Internet & Tech Bubbles: 2000-2002
The track record of SMARTE TRADER speaks for itself. The results have made it the premier and most successful subscription service for short-term traders available anywhere.
The chart shows some of the timing recommendations in the year 2000. You can see for yourself how much that advice would have been worth to you.
The bear market of 2000-2002 was the most devastating market decline, in terms of dollars, in history up to that time. Wall Street continued to advise investors to “hold for the long-term.” Well, that advice cost many investors utter devastation of their retirement nest egg. And it had nothing to do with the attack on 9/11. But our subscribers were prepared. They sold and sold short.
In 2002 one of the leading mutual fund families had over 16% of its huge stock holdings with a loss of 90% or more. So much for “Buy and Hold.”
But one group made significant profits: short-term oriented traders, either professionals or those who had the advice of the best professionals in the business. And that includes subscribers to our SMARTE TRADER service.
SMARTE TRADER helped investors and traders avoid the traps… and profit from the sharp declines by selling short. It’s the happiest bunch of investors you’ll find anywhere. In fact, in early October 2000, we compared the NASDAQ chart to that of gold in early 1980’s. The similarity to the gold crash was striking.
You see, chart patterns reflect human emotions: fear, greed, complacency are all depicted. And these emotions always repeat. If you know how to interpret the charts, you will be far ahead of the crowd.
This chart shows his major forecast of important turning points in the year 2001.
Subscribers know that Bert usually, but not always, catches such turns within 1-2 days.
Note how he pinpointed the bottoms of declines, and then the rally tops. For a trader, it is important not to be perpetually bullish or bearish. The market goes in waves. A trader must go do the same. You must be like a champion surfer: when the wave runs out, you get off.
AFTER THE CRASH OF 2000-2001: GOING AGAINST THE CROWD
Look at September 2001. After the terrorist attack of 9/11, there was gloom and doom everywhere. Bert wrote at the time, that once the stock markets reopened, after a brief shake-out the market would rise strongly. It did!
The Nasdaq Composite rose 42% over the next 10 weeks. His “buy signal” of Sept. 24 and 27, 2001 (depending on the service) were right on. Subscribers smiled as the perennial “gloom and doomers” stayed on the side, and short-sellers were bloodied. For Bert’s subscribers it was a great opportunity.
And in early 2002, Bert advised to sell short again, just when Wall Street had turned bullish. The subsequent decline was devastating for those following Wall Street advice. The plunge didn’t stop until October that year.
Technical analysis shows what the insiders are doing. These insiders are the first to know when business is deteriorating, when their company is running out of cash, that the doors for new financing are closed, etc. Wall Street analysts won’t tell you that until you have lost most of your money on the stock. But it takes years of experience to interpret the signals correctly.
Bert Dohmen analyzes the markets 8-12 hours a day for you, using the most sophisticated analysis techniques. As a subscriber to SMARTE TRADER you will have confidence in your trades. You will know that a pro with over three decades of trading experience is on your side.
REFLATION AND BERT’S BUY SIGNAL
An experienced trader has no preference whether to buy or sell short. After closing out all short positions in early October 2002, SMARTE TRADER advised buying soon thereafter. The bottom of the devastating bear market had been seen. He wrote:
“Very interesting is the fact that the close on Oct. 9, 2002 was 776.76 (on the S&P 500). We round that up and we get 777…The closing low on the Dow in the big bear market of 1982, 20 years ago, was 776.90 on Aug. 12, 1982. This is 777 rounded off. Coincidence or a signal?”
Also remarkable is that the low on S&P 500 on March 6, 2009, the exact low of the global crash was: 666! Who says that Wall Street has no sense of humor!
You see, these signals are totally ignored by just about all analyst. Our technical work gave very loud “Buy” signals. In spite of all the skeptics and “gloom and doomers,” we got on board. The bottom of the worst wealth devastation in history was in place! In early January, 2003, Bert wrote a headline: “REFLATION BRINGS OPPORTUNITIES.”
He wrote: “Yes, they do ring a bell on Wall Street. And this one will go down in history as the one that changed the investment markets for many years to come.”
S&P 500/ 2001-2004
Dohmen also turned very bullish on gold and wrote in January 2003: “This could be one of the most important investment areas for investors for several years… After having been bearish on gold for 21 years, except for the intermittent rallies which lasted up to one year, I am now a gold bull.”
Over the next 11 months, gold stocks soared. Look at some of these gains: Newmont Mining +70%, Bema Gold +207%, and Gold Star +283%. The HUI Gold Bugs index of mining stocks was up almost 72%.
In early January 2003, Dohmen also strongly recommended the homebuilder stocks. At the time, Wall Street was bearish on the complex, predicting that the new “housing bubble” would burst.
Over the next 11 months, this was one of the strongest groups. Here are some of the gains of recommended stocks: D.R. Horton +137%, Ryland +148%, Centex +113%, Toll Brothers +99%, etc.
Such gains are certainly better than the 1% offered by money market funds or bonds.
AN INCOMPARABLE TRACK RECORD
In January of 2005, national magazines carried the story that some of the well-known billionaires of the world had sold the dollar short in excess of $20 billion, expecting a further decline. But Dohmen predicted a sharp rally in the US dollar, stating that these billionaires would lose billions of dollars in their short positions. The dollar rallied. The billionaires lost fortunes. Bert was right!
For the same reasons, he advised selling international bond funds, which had done so well for subscribers as the dollar declined in 2004. It was very timely advice.
Once again, ask yourself how much the above advice would have been worth to you in just the first month of the year? The subscription fee is inconsequential in comparison.
You can easily see that the “long-term hold” approach which Wall Street preaches doesn’t work. In fact, it can lead to financial ruin. For the next several years, you have to be a trader, or active investor, to make money in the markets.
“While most investors Weep, Bert Dohmen’s subscribers Reap.”
This is a sampling of Bert Dohmen’s forecast over the past 20 years. It clearly shows several things:
- The great importance of not being in the wrong sectors at the wrong time, and being in the right sectors at the right time.
- The importance of not using the “buy and hold forever” approach
- The non-sense of the excuse, “No one can time the markets.” Just because they can’t doesn’t mean it’s not possible. They probably can’t run the 4 minute mile, but many runners do.
His forecasts usually go against the crowds, but their accuracy is proven fact. But Bert Dohmen is the first one to state that anyone that expects a perfect forecasting record is looking for the impossible. Not in this world. We were not meant to know the future, even if it were knowable.
The mark of a good analyst and advisor is that when he is wrong, he recognizes it, and through proper risk control, minimizes the damage. The best market traders in the world, who make millions of dollars a year for themselves, state that maybe only 20%-30% of their trades are profitable. The others are losers. However, these traders make money because they cut losses short. Risk control, and avoiding the big losses, is the name of the game to investment success.
You’d have to look hard to find someone with more respect among his peers and grateful followers than Bert Dohmen.
Why is Mr. Dohmen so respected? He’s the advisor who has:
- He has met with Presidents Ronald Reagan, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, as well as Dr. Milton Friedman, Ambassador Vernon Walters, Presidential economic advisors Dr. Beryl Sprinkle, Fed president Dr. Jerry Jordan, Congressman Ron Paul, presidential candidate Barry Goldwater, real estate tycoon Sam Zell, and over a dozen of the world’s billionaires and smartest entrepreneurs.
- Been quoted for his expertise in Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily, Business Week, and scores of other publication.
- Been rated #1 Market Timer by Timer Digest.
- Outperformed a buy-and-hold approach of top no-load mutual funds by up to 399 percentage points.
- Has been a special guest on Louis Rukeyser’s “Wall Street Week,” CNN’s “Moneyline,” Neil Cavuto on FoxNews, CNBC, CNBC-ASIA, CHINA TV (CCTV), and others.
- Been described in a Dec 8, 1986 issue of Business Week as “a pro who thinks it’s time to stock up on stocks (just before an 800 point upmove in the Dow Jones Industrials.)”
- Been one of the world’s highest-paid investment advisors (at $2,400 an hour.)
- Been praised by Wall Street Transcript as one who has “gained an international reputation for his accurate forecasts on the economy and major investment markets.”