Could Retail Continue to Sink to the Lows Seen in 2008?

Could Retail
Continue to Sink to
the Lows Seen in


The Retail sector is getting hit hard once again, while many of the big retailers gather at a conference this week. The CEOs of some of the major department stores continue to tout “big growth areas” for their firms in the near future.

The Stock And Bond Markets: A Critical Time

A CNBC survey asked 14 global market strategists to give their year-end target for the S&P 500 index. The lowest forecast was for 2,150 (close on May 28 was around 2120.) Most of the other forecasts were just below 2,300, while a number were above that level.

We remember a Barron’s survey of top institutional money managers in early 2008, just before the global crisis. Not one of them forecasted a decline in the stock market for the year, but the year saw the greatest global crisis since 1929.

They were obviously all very, very wrong.

Will The Economy Fool The Majority?

Wall Street economists and analysts are virtually unanimous in expecting a strong economy the second half of the year. Will they be right?  We have a different view.

Late last year, economists had expected a strong first half of 2014. It didn’t happen. They blamed the winter. But don’t we have winters every year? Now that their first half prediction was wrong, they are trying again for the second half. Perhaps they will have more luck this time.

Why Are Stocks Rising?

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During 2013, many smart analysts and money managers voiced their puzzlement of why the stock market continued to rise in spite of the lack of revenue growth of many companies, a stagnating economy, and looming problems in 2014. I wrote in our Wellington Letter that this year it would have been more productive for analysts to just “go with the flow” and head for the golf course each day then to do tedious analysis.

A Bear in the China Story: Opinion

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NEW YORK (TheStreet) — The China bulls haven’t given up in spite of all the evidence that China’s economy is in trouble. Only massive governmental projects are keeping economic activity from contracting. Capital investments from the government are now about five times greater than in developed countries.