The Stock And Bond Markets: A Critical Time

A CNBC survey asked 14 global market strategists to give their year-end target for the S&P 500 index. The lowest forecast was for 2,150 (close on May 28 was around 2120.) Most of the other forecasts were just below 2,300, while a number were above that level.

We remember a Barron’s survey of top institutional money managers in early 2008, just before the global crisis. Not one of them forecasted a decline in the stock market for the year, but the year saw the greatest global crisis since 1929.

They were obviously all very, very wrong.

A Market Crash This Year?

Do you remember early 2014 when every Wall Street analyst and economist said that T-bonds would be the worst investment for the year and people should sell them?

As it turned out, for the 13 months ending January 31, 2015 T-bonds had the best performance of almost any investment sector. The Vanguard ETF investing in long-term T-bond zeroes, was up over 51% for that time.

In 2014, as late as December, we heard from the same group of “experts” that the economy would grow robustly in 2015.

15 Reasons To Sell Most Stocks Now

The start of the year has been one of the worst ever for the stock market. The bulls have been shaken, but they haven’t given up pounding the tables with their bullish message. We haven’t even seen concern break out, much less bearishness. Such lack of concern and fear in an environment of great excesses is always a flashing yellow light for me.

I look at the technical aspects of the markets, which include ‘sentiment’ and measures of money flow and exposure. Here are 15 warning signals I see for investors in 2015:

How’s China Doing? Forget ‘Official’ Economic Statistics, Watch Its Neighbors Instead

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What happens in China is very important for you as an investor or business leader, even if you share my view of not investing in China.

First of all, it affects the large U.S. companies that do a lot of business with China. The country’s worsening credit crisis has a high probability of infecting Asia and the global markets. Be skeptical about any economic measures coming out of China.