TIMING IS EVERYTHING

BY BERT DOHMEN
Founder of Dohmen Capital Research Group

“The ultimate ignorance is the rejection of something you know nothing about yet refuse to investigate.”
– Dr. Wayne Dyer

Because of the winter storm disaster in Texas and some other states, and the “global warming” crowd telling us it is the result of not doing enough with “green energy,” I want to give you my thoughts on the subject, citing my research over the years.

In our latest Wellington Letter (published February 21, 2021), we commented on the latest storm:

The power outages: Everyone knows about the winter storm that knocked out power for days in Texas. The news has been monopolized over the past several days. People are freezing and stores are empty. It’s bad enough to have no power and no heat for many nights and days, but now other people who had power are getting their electrical bills. According to one article:

 

“One man whose average bill was around $660 per month, now got a bill for $17,000. Oilprice.com estimated that to charge a Tesla would cost a person $900 [during the storm].”

 

This is the price paid for using an inefficient source of power, namely windmills. Aside from creating mountains of unrecyclable used blades, they are additionally killing millions of birds. How can this possibly be called “green?”

 

Uranium is now being promoted as a “clean” alternative again. But they still don’t have a method to dispose of used uranium fuel in a safe way. They best they can do is bury it underground and let future generations solve the problem.

 

Solar is the one true “green” alternative energy source, as I said in a debate with my high school science teacher more than half a century ago. If only half the money spent on bad “green” energy, like windmills, micro-algae, and other far-fetched ideas, were spent on solar research and efficient storage of electrical energy, the advances would have been much greater.

 

(End of Wellington Letter excerpt)

The term “Global Warming” was changed to “Climate Change” when scientific evidence emerged, and then intentionally suppressed, that a long term period of “global cooling” may be ahead. It could last perhaps 11 years, but could last as long over 30 years or more according to NASA.

NASA’s research showed that the world may be starting a long period of “cooling” based on scientific evidence regarding diminishing sun spots, which is a sign of diminished energy output from the sun. This comes at a time that the science ignorami of the world have protest marches against global warming. Are the protests directed against the sun?

Link: Amidst Global Warming Hysteria, NASA Expects Global Cooling – Mike Shedlock (townhall.com)

Why should investors be concerned about this topic? Because whether there is global warming or global cooling is very important; it can help forecast the areas of the economy, and the geographic regions of the world, that will outperform or underperform. Since governments and the masses are usually totally wrong in predicting disasters, we decided some years ago to gather evidence that Al Gore’s war on the climate was a hoax. When politicians go to such an extreme effort to convince the people of something, you can be sure that the only motive is MONEY.

If the evidence we have gathered from sources such as NASA, and if “global cooling” could be the true long term problem, we have to consider the enormous effect on the economies of the world.

With shorter growing seasons for farmers, there will be huge crop shortages. These already started several years ago. Agricultural prices will have a very big, long term up-move. Here is the chart of the ETF for agricultural prices, DBA:

DBA had a 10 year bear market. If cooling becomes more evident, there will be a rush to restock inventories. China has been a huge buyer of agricultural products. Do their scientists know more than our politicians? Highly likely!

Climate change is a long-term change. You don’t say the earth is getting hot just because last week there was a heat wave somewhere. There are about 8 billion people in the world. Imagine how long-term food shortages would affect them? There will be many other shortages of commodities as the world has to adjust to the new reality.

Shortages produce much higher prices especially when it comes to essential food. Higher inflation triggers immense changes in the economies and the behavior of people. That affects prices of investments. Look at the changes produced by a coronavirus, which is similar to the flu virus. The problem was not the virus, but politicians reacting to it and using it to promote their own programs. The slogan is: “Never let a crisis go to waste.”

The billions of people who cannot pay the higher prices will die, or resort to theft in order to eat. But if store shelves are empty, there is not much to steal. The social upheaval will be significant. Read about the last mini-ice age that lasted 75 years in the Middle Ages.

Here is an excerpt from an article on Townhall Finance, quoting NASA’s Langley Research Center.

Those promoting CO2 as the reason for global warming are hucksters and those taken in by hucksters.

 

Please consider “NASA Sees Climate Cooling Trend Thanks to Low Sun Activity.”

 

“We see a cooling trend,” said Martin Mlynczak of NASA’s Langley Research Center. “High above Earth’s surface, near the edge of space, our atmosphere is losing heat energy. If current trends continue, it could soon set a Space Age record for cold.”

 

The new data is coming from NASA’s Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry or SABER instrument, which is onboard the space agency’s Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite. SABER monitors infrared radiation from carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitric oxide (NO), two substances that play a vital role in the energy output of our thermosphere, the very top level of our atmosphere.

 

“The thermosphere always cools off during Solar Minimum. It’s one of the most important ways the solar cycle affects our planet,” said Mlynczak, who is the associate principal investigator for SABER.

 

The new NASA findings are in line with studies released by UC-San Diego and Northumbria University in Great Britain last year, both of which predict a Grand Solar Minimum in coming decades due to low sunspot activity. Both studies predicted sun activity similar to the Maunder Minimum of the mid-17th to early 18th centuries, which coincided to a time known as the Little Ice Age, during which temperatures were much lower than those of today.

 

If all of this seems as if NASA is contradicting itself, you’re right — sort of. After all, NASA also reported last week that Arctic sea ice was at its sixth lowest level since measuring began. Isn’t that a sure sign of global warming?

 

All any of this “proves” is that we have, at best, a cursory understanding of Earth’s incredibly complex climate system. So when mainstream media and carbon-credit salesman Al Gore breathlessly warn you that we must do something about climate change, it’s all right to step back, take a deep breath, and realize that we don’t have the knowledge, skill or resources to have much effect on the Earth’s climate.

However, the climate activists shut down anyone who has a different view. In fact, a known “TV scientist” said that all deniers of climate change should be imprisoned.

Often I find that the person on the other side of the debate knows no facts, but states “everyone knows it.” When they are challenged to produce just one proven fact to support their argument, there is silence, or they say, “it is proven.”

Read the quote above, at the beginning of this article, from Dr. Wayne Dyer, a very intelligent person. It applies very well to the topic of this article.

Predictably, NASA has changed its tune on global cooling. It is funded by the government, and the official governmental policy is that “Global Warming” is the great danger to the world. We must spend TRILLIONS of dollars to fight it. You can guess where that money will go.

This article will shock some people. It probably goes against everything they hear from second rate entertainers, politicians, and fanatics who tell you that the world will end in 12 years if we don’t spend trillions of dollars on solving the problem of alleged human-caused global warming.

That term has been changed to “Climate Change” over the past few years. Perhaps they actually do realize that the globe will soon go into a long-term cooling phase. That of course will be blamed on human activity, presumably because CO2 in the atmosphere blocks the sun.

The proposed remedy then will be spending trillions of dollars of taxes and carbon credit, and sucking the alleged harmful substance, CO2, out of the air. That will be pumped way down into the earth. Oops, isn’t that the same remedy as for fighting “global warming”?

Guess who will profit from that. The big oil companies are already spending millions on this technology.

The “global warming” scare about human activity being the cause is laughable to anyone who knows science. If there really is a long-term warming trend of the earth that will endanger life on earth, it is not caused by humankind, but by the sun.

Every second the sun produces the same energy as about a trillion 1 megaton of bombs! That amount of energy is so staggering we can’t even imagine it.

In one second, our sun produces enough energy for almost 500,000 years of the current needs of our so-called civilization. If only we could collect it all and use it!

I wrote several years ago, if someone can show evidence that governments can reduce energy output from the sun, I will support those efforts. But the scientific fact is that the sun is the overwhelming greatest influence in our climate through its variable cycles of energy output.

Therefore, isn’t it ridiculous that driving a small car instead of an SUV will make a difference to our climate?

Mankind is so miniscule in its activities, it is like a flea on an elephant, or better, like a grain of sand in the Sahara desert. This cooling period is called the “Maunder Minimum.” I have written about this for at least 18 months.

Michael Snyder also writes about this on TheWashingtonStandard.com:

During a solar minimum, solar activity drops to very low levels, and that tends to mean lower temperatures on Earth.

 

Earlier this year, a panel of experts gathered to discuss the current solar minimum, and they came to the conclusion that it “could last for years”

 

If you like solar minimum, good news: It could last for years. That was one of the predictions issued last week by an international panel of experts who gathered at NOAA’s annual Space Weather Workshop to forecast the next solar cycle.

 

If the panel is correct, already-low sunspot counts will reach a nadir sometime between July 2019 and Sept 2020, followed by a slow recovery toward a new Solar Maximum in 2023-2026.

 

“We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak maximum, preceded by a long, deep minimum,” says panel co-chair Lisa Upton, a solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp.

 

But that would actually be a best case scenario.

 

There are others that believe that we have now entered a “grand solar minimum” such as the one that our planet experienced several hundred years ago. That one was known as “the Maunder Minimum”, and it resulted in a “little ice age”

 

The extreme example happened between 1645 and 1715 when the normal 11-year sunspot cycle vanished. This period, called the Maunder Minimum, was accompanied by bitterly cold winters in the American colonies. Fishing settlements in Iceland and Greenland were abandoned.

 

Icebergs were seen near the English channel. The canals of Venice froze. It was a time of great hardship.

 

Ultimately, the longer winters and shorter summers during the “Maunder Minimum” resulted in famine all over the globe, and multitudes ended up perishing

 

The Maunder Minimum is the most famous cold period of the Little Ice Age.

 

Temperatures plummeted in Europe (Figs. 14.3–14.7), the growing season became shorter by more than a month, the number of snowy days increased from a few to 20–30, the ground froze to several feet, alpine glaciers advanced all over the world, glaciers in the Swiss Alps encroached on farms and buried villages, tree-lines in the Alps dropped, sea ports were blocked by sea ice that surrounded Iceland and Holland for about 20 miles, wine grape harvests diminished, and cereal grain harvests failed, leading to mass famines (Fagan, 2007).

 

The Thames River and canals and rivers of the Netherlands froze over during the winter (Fig. 14.3). The population of Iceland decreased by about half. In parts of China, warm-weather crops that had been grown for centuries were abandoned. In North America, early European settlers experienced exceptionally severe winters.

Note the energy output of the sun cycle is signaled by the number of sunspots appearing. More sunspots means more warming. According to the SIDC, in 2018, 2019, and 2020 there have been 208 days, 274 days and 193 days, respectively, without a single sunspot on the sun. In fact, the past three years have ranked on the top 20 years with the most number of spotless days, going back to 1849. That means “cooling” is now the danger.

Looking at thousands and millions of years, using tree ring analysis, ice rings in Siberia, and carbon-dating, data show that there have been many cycles of global warming and cooling. The cooling periods have been called “mini-ice ages” and have been associated with famines and breakouts of pandemic diseases such as the “black death” that wiped out half the population of Europe about 700 years ago.

The warming periods are associated with the “Renaissance,” the “Age of Enlightenment,” great scientific advancements, culture, and art, among others.

Which would you rather have?

We do not know when solar activity will return to normal, but for now we should all prepare for bitterly cold winters for at least the next 11 years if this is really the start.

Wishing you good health and prosperous investing,

Bert Dohmen, Founder
Dohmen Capital Research
Dohmen Strategies, LLC